Unpacking the potential candidates for Stefanik’s seat in New York’s 21st District

Speculation increases as special election looms

By Lucy Hodgman, Staff Writer

ALBANY — This week, President-elect Donald J. Trump tapped U.S. Rep Elise Stefanik to serve as his next ambassador to the United Nations  — creating an opening in the sprawling North Country congressional district that Stefanik has represented for almost a decade. 

The five-term congressional member has consistently won by decisive margins in New York’s 21st Congressional District, which includes the Mohawk Valley and much of the Adirondacks. At 40, Stefanik has been a rising star in the Republican party, a fierce ally of Trump’s for whom the U.N. ambassadorship will likely be a stepping stone on the way to a bid for higher office. 

Stefanik’s seat will not officially be up for grabs until she resigns, which will probably happen after she is confirmed by the U.S. Senate early next year. Gov. Kathy Hochul would then have 10 days to schedule a special election to be held within another 70-80 days. Rather than a traditional primary election, the nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties will each be selected by the respective chairs of their party committees for each county in the district. Each chair’s vote is weighted by the number of registered voters in their party per county. 

Republicans are predicted to win the House of Representatives by a narrow margin, and control of Stefanik’s seat could become crucial if Trump continues to pull incumbent House Republicans into his cabinet. In the deeply red North Country, the odds of a Democratic challenger winning the seat in a special election are low, but not negligible, especially with the high-pressure conditions of an expedited special election.

Although few have publicly declared their interest in the seat, a wide range of New York political figures and others — from U.S. Rep. Marc Molinaro to Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino  — have already been floated as potential contenders. 

Here is a breakdown of some of the individuals who insiders on both sides of the aisle said are being discussed as the jockeying to succeed five-term incumbent Stefanik is already taking shape (in alphabetical order by last name).

Matt Castelli

Matt Castelli is a Democrat who unsuccessfully challenged Stefanik in 2022. A former CIA officer, Castelli served as director for counterterrorism on former president Barack Obama’s National Security Council. He decided to run for Congress after a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, calling Stefanik the “defender in chief of Jan. 6” and “the greatest threat to democracy that’s on our ballot.” 

Castelli has branded himself as a moderate Democrat, backing abortion rights but calling for stricter security at the southern border. He won 81 percent of the vote in the primary, but lost decisively to Stefanik in the general election. Castelli declined to challenge her again this year, writing that his “grueling” 2022 race took a heavy personal toll on him. 

Paula Collins

Paula Collins  —  a cannabis tax attorney and longtime special education teacher —  ran as a Democratic challenger to Stefanik this year. Stefanik won that race handily, pulling in over 80,000 more votes than her opponent. But Collins, 61, is interested in running again and has pitched herself to the district’s Democratic chairs. 

“They are interviewing other potential candidates and I think that’s a mistake,” Collins told the Times Union. “I do believe that continuity is important.” 

Collins said that while she struggled to raise funds for her campaign this year, she asserts she built a grassroots movement of Democrats in the district — if she is not chosen as the nominee, she said, she fears that movement’s momentum may be lost. 

Anthony Constantino

Anthony Constantino is the chief executive of Sticker Mule, an Amsterdam-based sticker manufacturing company. Constantino, 41, achieved a moment of internet fame this fall when he spent $125,000 on a 100-foot long, 12-foot tall “Vote for Trump” sign atop Sticker Mule’s headquarters near Interstate 90 in Montgomery County. Constantino drew praise from prominent Trump allies Roger Stone and Laura Loomer, especially after a battle with Amsterdam city leaders over the sign’s violation of city codes. 

“I am strongly considering running for the NY-21 congressional seat,” Constantino posted to X late Monday night. “Thank you!”

Constantino first made political waves in July, when he sent an email to Sticker Mule’s 4 million-person mailing list with the subject line “Trump 2024” after the first assassination attempt on the former president. In September, Constantino announced the creation of StickerPAC, a political action committee which has printed tens of thousands of free pro-Trump stickers. 

Assemblyman D. Billy Jones 

Billy Jones could be a potential Democratic favorite in the special election; he is the state Legislature’s lone Democrat in the North Country and has represented the rural 115th District. Jones has succeeded in the red North Country by campaigning on lower taxes and increased transparency in government. He ran his family’s dairy farm after graduating from high school, then worked as a correction officer in New York for almost 20 years before he was elected Chateaugay mayor in 2009. 

Jones, 50, is the only Democratic state lawmaker in the 21st Congressional District, which has not been held by a Democrat since Rep. Bill Owens retired in 2015. He has yet to comment on whether he will run for Stefanik’s seat, telling the Daily Gazette of Schenectady that “there will be plenty of time to talk about politics and all of that in the next several days and weeks to come.” 

Rensselaer County Executive Steve McLaughlin

An outspoken supporter of Stefanik, Steve McLaughlin was elected county executive in 2017, although the county will be entirely carved out of Stefanik’s district when new boundaries takes effect on Jan. 1. McLaughlin, 61, is a popular figure among county Republicans, receiving nearly double the votes of his opponent to win a second term in 2021. 

Stefanik praised McLaughlin on Friday, predicting that he would be a “talent for many, many years to come.” The Rensselaer county executive didn’t dismiss the prospect of filling Stefanik’s seat, telling the Times Union’s Chris Churchill that he would talk it over with his wife. But Rensselaer County also voted for Harris this year, and it’s unclear if that could be a mark for the fiery politician.

The self-proclaimed “boss” of Rensselaer County, McLaughlin has been mired in controversy for much of the last decade. As an assemblyman, he was sanctioned for allegedly sexually harassing the female aide of an Assembly colleague, and later accused of physically assaulting another female aide during an argument. He denies both allegations. Last year, he was acquitted of state criminal charges alleging he had embezzled $5,000 from his campaign to pay off the former female aide who had accused him of roughing her up. And in September, three of the top employees under him in the county executive’s administration were acquitted of conspiring to commit ballot fraud to benefit his 2021 reelection campaign. 

Jeremy Messina

Upstate Republicans  — a New York group that plans events in support of Republican candidates — is backing Jeremy Messina, calling him the “only vocal pro-Trump candidate.” Messina, 29, is a former business owner who was the 2024 Republican nominee to represent District 113 in the Assembly. He lost to Democrat Carrie Woerner, taking home around 44 percent of the vote. 

“I have called Jeremy and asked him if people are urging him to run,” said Steve Salvi, president of Upstate Republicans. “He responded that he has had an overwhelming amount of support and is considering it.” 

Salvi added that Messina would only run for the seat with Stefanik’s blessing. 

U.S. Rep. Marc Molinaro 

The outgoing congressman has held public office since he became the mayor of Tivoli at the age of 19. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 2018, losing to Andrew M. Cuomo. Molinaro, 49, then lost a special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District in the summer of 2022, but ran again successfully after a redistricting shuffle later that year. 

Josh Riley, his opponent in that race, just won a closely watched rematch this month that the AP has called for Riley by a razor-thin margin. (Molinaro was expected to officially concede the race late Tuesday. Stefanik stumped for Molinaro on the campaign trail this October and he lives about eight miles from the border of the 21st District in Greene County. However, the rules do not require congressional members in New York to be a resident of their district, only a resident of the state.  

Joe Pinion

Former Newsmax host Joe Pinion was the Republican nominee against Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer in 2022, becoming the first Black person to receive a major party’s backing for the U.S. Senate in New York. Lifted by a “red wave” in New York during the 2022 midterm elections, Pinion lost to Schumer but performed better than any Republican nominee for U.S. Senate since 2000. 

Since then, Pinion, 41, has made regular appearances as a political analyst on networks like Fox News and CNN. He is also the former national spokesman for republicEN, a conservative environmental advocacy organization. Pinion has criticized deniers of climate change within the Republican party. GOP insiders said Pinion this week has started making outreach to express his interest for the congressional seat.

Assemblyman Robert Smullen

Republican Robert Smullen has served in the state Assembly since 2018, representing a swath of the North Country and Mohawk Valley. He praised Stefanik’s appointment to the second Trump administration, but has not yet indicated whether he will pursue her seat.

Smullen, 56, spent 24 years in the Marine Corps, rising to the rank of colonel. In 2003, he was appointed a White House fellow by then-President George W. Bush, and spent two years working in the Office of the Secretary of Energy. In the Assembly, Smullen has focused on support for veterans and economic development in the state. He quietly settled felony tax charges in 2019 after he was accused of falsely stating on a veteran’s exemption form that a home he owned in Niskayuna was his primary residence  —  taking $105,000 off his home’s $300,000 assessment.

State Sen. Daniel G. Stec

A veteran of the Navy, Republican Daniel G. Stec, 55, spent four terms in the New York Assembly before he was elected to represent New York’s 45th District as a state senator in 2020. He is a Queensbury native and previously served as Queensbury town supervisor, as well as chairman of the Warren County Board of Supervisors. Much of his North Country constituency overlaps with Stefanik’s — both of them represent Queensbury, Glens Falls and Plattsburgh. 

Although Stefanik has not publicly endorsed a successor, she is said to be closely aligned with Stec, who has been a staunch supporter of her and Trump. GOP sources said if Stefanik does endorse a candidate it could carry a lot of weight. 

In the Senate, Stec has advocated for conservative reforms on public safety, calling for a repeal of New York’s 2019 retooled bail statutes and the 2022 HALT Act, which limits the use of solitary confinement in state and local correctional facilities. He’s also advocated for broadband expansion and serves as the ranking members of the Environmental Conservation and Internet and Technology committees.

Assemblyman Chris Tague

Schoharie Republican Chris Tague has served in the New York Assembly since 2018, representing a constituency that includes Schoharie, Catskill and Stamford. Tague, 55, ran a dairy farm for five years after graduating from high school, selling the business to join Cobleskill Stone Products in 1992. He rose to general manager before leaving to run for state Assembly. 

A longtime McLaughlin ally, Tague also briefly held a second job as a “community relations director” in McLaughlin’s district office when the now-Rensselaer County executive served in the state Assembly. Tague told Spectrum News 1 that he is “seriously considering” a run for Stefanik’s seat. 

State Sen. Mark C. Walczyk

Republican Mark C. Walczyk has represented New York’s 49th District in the state Senate since 2022, following terms in the state Assembly and with the Watertown City Council. Walczyk, 39, was endorsed by Stefanik in his first campaign for state Senate — at the time, the congresswoman called him the only candidate “standing up against the far-left Democrat rule that has destroyed New York state.” 

Walczyk endorsed Stefanik for her reelection bid this year, calling the House’s fourth-highest ranking member “the fighter we need in D.C.” A graduate of the University of Albany, Walczyk joined Stefanik in blaming New York’s gun control laws for the closure of the Remington Arms plant in Ilion, which they both represent, last December.