Adirondacks summer outlook: Warm temperatures, more rain

Wildfire outlook uncertain for Northeast

By Chloe Bennett

Muddy trails and warm air are expected in the Adirondacks this summer, as scientists predict above-average temperatures and precipitation. The seasonal outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is similar to last year, though the likelihood of increased rain is stronger. 

Using a series of climate projection tools, NOAA scientists calculate the chances of weather patterns like temperature and precipitation across the country. The administration’s analysis of a 30-year record of weather provides the basis for climate modeling and this year’s projections come from 1991 to 2020. Maps with science-based predictions are published regularly. 

Last year seized the record for warmth, the administration announced in January, and 2024 has a one-in-three chance of exceeding that troublesome title. There’s a 99% likelihood that this year will be among the five hottest, NOAA stated. The switch from El Niño to La Niña later this summer plays a large role in the projections, as the natural weather phenomenon influences temperatures differently across the country. 

The highest chances of above-average heat are in the Southwest and the Northeast, where prediction signals are stronger than in some other parts of the country. 

Warm and wet weather ahead

Heat in the park has up to a 60% chance of being higher than usual this summer while heavier-than-normal rain is up to 40% more likely. Rainfall last year caused flooding that closed roads and changed some of the park’s landscape and wildlife habitats. 

As human-caused climate change increases heat globally, the Northeast is expected to become even wetter over the coming years. Using data from the United Nations, the Northeast Regional Climate Center predicts the region will experience more intense and prolonged rain showers. 

Jon Gottschalck, forecast branch chief for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said the above-average indicators are becoming more frequent. 

“Temperatures have been generally ranging above normal, much of the time, and part of that is the climate change signal,” he said. 

The increased rain could help plants new and old thrive, but Gottschalck said that could add to wildfire risks. The region generally does not experience fires mirroring those of western states, but several brush fires break out in the state each year. 

Wildfire outlook 

Climate change’s effect on wildfires in the Northeast is uncertain, scientists say, but some scenarios could heighten the risk. A combination of dry conditions, more vegetation and strong winds could lead to more wildfires, Gottschalck said, though they wouldn’t match the severity of California wildfires. 

“It was very wet during the winter, but that also can be a double-edged sword because it can produce a lot of fuels that can dry up very quickly and burn very quickly, and cause brush fires and wildfires,” he said. 

As of late April, the state Department of Environmental Conservation said wildfires have not been severe. Forest rangers have responded to 18 wildfires totaling approximately 122 acres across the state.

Another summer of air pollution from Canadian wildfires could be approaching. In mid-April, the Canadian government said its seasonal outlook points to “another catastrophic fire season.” Unusually warm and dry conditions indicate that parts of the country will have early and increased fire activity. Western Canada, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec are at the highest risk, the release states. 

“Climate change is real, and it is here; we have a plan, are coordinating across all levels of government and making important investments; we’ll get through this together,” the document reads. 

Toxic smoke from Canadian wildfires pervaded Adirondack skies last summer and fall, triggering health warnings from state officials. Fine particle pollution, made up of tiny bits of matter from wildfires, carried dust and soot through the air. The pollution appeared intermittently from June to at least September. Forest rangers and firefighters from New York aided fire containment efforts north of the border. 

As of April 24, a live map from the BlueSky Canada Smoke Forecasting System showed no smoke from northern wildfires entering New York.